Keep furnace replacements profitable as heating changes

Where we work

Furnace business consulting in every province and territory

We advise furnace-led HVAC companies in all ten provinces and three territories from Vancouver, in person or by video call, phone, text and email. The right business model depends heavily on how homes in your province are heated, so each region page starts from that.

Written by Ali Sedighi, MBALast updated:

We work with furnace-led companies everywhere in Canada, but we never give the same advice in two provinces. The single biggest factor in a furnace company's business model is how the homes around it are heated, and that ranges from gas-dominated Alberta to electricity-dominated Quebec. This hub groups the regions, summarises what changes between them, and links to a page for each province and one for the three territories.

All figures on fuel shares come from Statistics Canada's Table 38-10-0286-01, which reports the main heating energy for households in 2023 as a share of all households. Programs are listed as of October 2026 from the administrators' pages; confirm with them before you build an offer.

Schematic coverage map, not to scale

West Coast: British Columbia

BC is a split market. Natural gas was the main heating energy for 42% of households in 2023 and electricity for 36%, and climate varies from the mild southwest coast to a long, cold Interior and North. Provincial rebates favour switching from gas to heat pumps, while a federally funded FortisBC stream includes dual-fuel measures. For a furnace company, that makes BC the clearest case for a whole-home heating position. See the British Columbia page.

Prairies: Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba

The Prairies remain furnace country, but not evenly.

  • Alberta: gas leads at about 76% of households, with a long heating season and no province-wide heating rebate found on official sources.
  • Saskatchewan: gas at about 75%, and SaskEnergy still offers a rebate on high-efficiency gas furnaces.
  • Manitoba: gas at 52% and electricity at 33%, with active heat-pump rebates through Efficiency Manitoba.

On the Prairies, the furnace replacement market is large and defensible. The questions are margin, capacity in brutal cold snaps, and when to add dual-fuel.

Central Canada: Ontario and Quebec

These two provinces hold most of Canada's homes and couldn't be more different for a furnace company.

  • Ontario: gas was the main heating energy for 58% of households in 2023. Enbridge Gas and Save on Energy jointly run a home renovation rebate program that includes heat pumps.
  • Quebec: electricity heats about 70% of homes and gas only 5%. Hydro-Québec's LogisVert program funds heat pumps, and French-language rules apply to commercial advertising.

Atlantic Canada: New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, PEI, and Newfoundland and Labrador

Atlantic Canada is the region where heat pumps have gone furthest. Heat pumps were the primary system for 27% of New Brunswick households, 25% in Nova Scotia and 36% on PEI in 2023, while oil still heats a meaningful share of Nova Scotia and PEI homes. Newfoundland and Labrador is mostly electric. Furnace companies here tend to be oil, propane and heat-pump businesses as much as gas ones. See New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador.

The North: Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut

The territories have the longest heating seasons in the country, small and remote markets, and program designs shaped by fragile electricity grids. Yukon's Dependable Grid Program, for example, supports dual-fuel and non-electric heating to reduce winter peak demand. The Statistics Canada table doesn't cover the territories, so we work from local knowledge you bring. See the territories page.

What the map can't tell you

Provincial figures describe averages. Your own service area may look quite different: a gas-heated suburb inside a mostly electric province, or an oil-heated rural pocket in a gas-heavy one. That's why we also ask for the fuel mix of your own customer list. Combined with the provincial picture, it shows whether your company is ahead of or behind the shift happening around it, and how quickly your offer needs to change.

How we use this on an engagement

On the first call we place your company on this map: the fuel mix of your service area, the programs open there, and the regulator your licensed staff deal with. That shapes every later decision, from which option appears first on your repair-or-replace sheet to how much heat-pump language belongs on your website. The fuel-shift positioning service turns it into a written plan, and the contact page explains how to start.

Frequently asked questions

Do you work with furnace companies outside BC?

Yes. We work with companies in every province and territory. Consultations happen in person or by video call, as well as by phone, text and email, so location doesn't limit who we can help.

Do you visit our shop in person?

Yes. We can meet at your shop or by video call. Everything we do, from the margin review to the sales-process trial, runs on your records and recorded calls.

Where do your provincial figures come from?

Heating-fuel shares come from Statistics Canada Table 38-10-0286-01 for 2023. Programs come from the administrators' own pages, checked in October 2026. The table doesn't cover the territories, so we don't quote fuel shares for the North.

Do you advise on licensing or permits in our province?

No. We link to the regulator so you know who to ask, but licensing, permits and code questions go to them and to your licensed staff.

Sources

  1. Statistics Canada Table 38-10-0286-01: Primary heating systems and type of energy (2026-10-23)
  2. Natural Resources Canada: Canada Greener Homes Initiative (2026-10-23)