Keep furnace replacements profitable as heating changes

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Running a furnace-led heating company in New Brunswick

New Brunswick is already a heat-pump province, so a furnace company's future lies in backup heat, oil and propane service, ducted systems and the care that keeps mixed systems running, rather than gas furnace replacement alone.

Written by Ali Sedighi, MBALast updated:

New Brunswick has already done much of what other provinces are only starting. Heat pumps were the primary heating system for 27% of households in 2023, electricity was the main heating energy for 39%, and wood for 6% (Statistics Canada). For a furnace-led company, the gas furnace replacement market is small. The business that works is a heating company that keeps mixed systems running and adds heat pumps to ducted homes.

The market a furnace company actually has

Moncton, Saint John, Fredericton, Dieppe, Riverview, Quispamsis, Miramichi and Edmundston make up most of the urban market, with a large rural population around them. A furnace-led company here mostly meets:

  • Oil and propane households that have not yet converted, many with ageing furnaces.
  • Heat-pump homes with a fossil-fuel or electric backup that still needs service.
  • Ducted homes where a central heat pump with an air handler or furnace backup makes sense.

Gas service exists in parts of the province, but it isn't the anchor it is on the Prairies.

Winters and timing

Winter here is reliably cold and snowy; it bites hardest inland and in the north, and eases a little along the Fundy shore. Demand for backup heat peaks in the coldest weeks, when heat pumps work hardest. That makes the backup system's reliability a selling point: a care plan that covers both the heat pump and its backup is easier to explain here than in most provinces.

Programs as of October 2026

NB Power runs home efficiency programs through Save Energy NB, including the Total Home Energy Savings Program for renovations such as heating, and an income-qualified Enhanced Energy Savings Program whose details we couldn't confirm. Check current eligibility with NB Power before quoting either.

The Oil to Heat Pump Affordability program co-delivered by NB Power closed to new registrations on 2026-06-30, with paperwork due 2026-10-01 and upgrades to be completed by 2027-03-31. As of our October 2026 check, the province had not joined the federal Greener Homes Affordability partnership. The federal National Heat Pump Rebate Program, announced on 2026-10-08, has no published launch date.

Where the margin hides in a heat-pump province

In a market like this, the riskiest work is often the most familiar. Oil furnace replacements in older rural homes can carry long drives, awkward basements and tank questions that stretch a standard install by hours. Meanwhile, heat-pump work brings its own surprises: electrical panel upgrades, line-set runs and callbacks while crews gain experience. A furnace-led company moving into heat pumps should cost each job type separately for at least a season, so a growing new line doesn't hide losses in the old one or the reverse.

Regulators

Technical Inspection Services, part of the Department of Public Safety, covers propane and natural gas installations, electrical, plumbing and pressure vessels, with related licensing. WorkSafeNB covers workplace safety, and Skilled Trades NB handles certification. We link only; any compliance question goes to them.

Language as a business decision

New Brunswick is Canada's only officially bilingual province, but its Official Languages Act gives people the right to provincial government services in either language and doesn't require private businesses to be bilingual. For a heating company, French service is a market choice. In Moncton, Dieppe and the north, offering it can be a real advantage in winning care-plan members.

How we'd approach a New Brunswick furnace-led company

  1. Reposition around reliability of mixed systems, using fuel-shift positioning, rather than furnace sales.
  2. Build a two-system care plan covering heat pump and backup, through service-plan base design.
  3. Price conversions separately from replacements in a margin review, because conversion jobs vary much more.
  4. Keep the oil and propane service base, which still needs skilled people and often converts to your heat-pump work later.

Frequently asked questions

Is there still furnace work in New Brunswick?

Yes, but mostly as oil and propane service, backup heat for heat-pump homes and ducted systems in larger houses. Heat pumps were already the primary system for 27% of households in 2023, so a pure furnace model has a small and shrinking base.

What happened to the oil-to-heat-pump program in NB?

The NB Power co-delivered Oil to Heat Pump Affordability intake closed to registration on 2026-06-30, with upgrades due by 2027-03-31. Remove it from your marketing unless you are completing existing projects.

Do we need to market in French?

New Brunswick's Official Languages Act covers provincial government services, not private businesses. Many companies still offer French service because a large share of customers prefer it, which is a business decision rather than a legal one.

Who inspects gas and propane installations?

Technical Inspection Services in the Department of Public Safety. We link to it; your licensed staff handle permits and inspections.

Sources

  1. Statistics Canada Table 38-10-0286-01 (2026-10-23)
  2. Save Energy NB: For your home (2026-10-23)
  3. Government of New Brunswick: Technical inspections (2026-10-23)
  4. Government of Canada: National Heat Pump Rebate Program announcement (2026-10-08) (2026-10-23)