Keep furnace replacements profitable as heating changes

Services

Fuel-shift positioning: how a furnace company should sell gas, dual-fuel and heat pumps

We look at your province's heating-fuel mix, the programs currently open there and your own crew skills, then decide how prominently your company should sell gas furnaces, dual-fuel systems and heat pumps, and how to say it.

Written by Ali Sedighi, MBALast updated:

Positioning is the decision about what your company is known for, and right now furnace companies face a harder version of it than any other part of HVAC. This service gives you a written answer to "what should we lead with?" for your province, based on how homes there are actually heated, the programs open as of the date we write it, and what your team can deliver well.

Why one national answer doesn't work

The share of homes heated mainly by natural gas varies more than tenfold across Canada. In Statistics Canada's survey of 2023 heating systems (Table 38-10-0286-01), gas is the main heating energy in about three-quarters of Alberta and Saskatchewan homes, a little under six in ten Ontario homes and just over half in Manitoba. In Quebec, by contrast, electricity heats about 70% of homes and gas only 5%. Several Atlantic provinces now report heat pumps as the primary system for a quarter or more of households.

So a furnace company in Saskatoon and one in Charlottetown are in different businesses. The first defends a large replacement market; the second is selling into a market where furnaces are the minority choice.

The three positions we usually consider

  1. Furnace specialist with a dual-fuel option. Lead with gas furnace replacement and expertise, and present dual-fuel as the upgrade. Suits strongly gas-heated provinces.
  2. Whole-home heating company. Present gas, dual-fuel and heat pump as equal options and let the house decide. Suits mixed markets such as BC, Manitoba and parts of Ontario.
  3. Heat-pump-led company with furnace backup expertise. Lead with heat pumps and keep furnace skills for dual-fuel and legacy service. Suits markets where gas is a small share.

The choice affects your website, your truck wraps, your proposals, your hiring and your training budget, so it's worth making deliberately.

Programs change the economics, not the principle

Programs tilt the comparison a homeowner makes. The federal government announced a National Heat Pump Rebate Program on 2026-10-08 for eligible cold-climate air-source heat pumps. Some programs point the other way for specific reasons: in Yukon, the Dependable Grid Program, announced 2026-04-15, offers rebates for dual-fuel systems and for non-electric heating in electrically heated homes to ease winter peak demand. Programs are listed as of October 2026; always confirm terms with the administrator. Each province page lists the ones we have checked.

What you receive

  • A one-page positioning statement for your market.
  • An offer structure: which options appear on the proposal, in what order, with which program links.
  • Website and proposal wording that matches the position, without overstating savings.
  • A short list of capability gaps (training, licences, suppliers) your team should look at, which your own licensed staff will assess.

A short example of the decision

Consider two illustrative companies of the same size. One works in a Saskatchewan city where most customers burn gas and the gas utility still rebates high-efficiency furnaces; its decision is to stay a furnace specialist, add a dual-fuel column to every quote and train one crew on heat pumps over two years. The other works in a mixed BC market where provincial rebates favour leaving gas; it repositions as a whole-home heating company, presents all three options equally and rewrites its website to match. Same trade, same size, opposite positions, both correct for their market.

Timeline and measurement

Three to four weeks. We measure the share of quotes that include more than one fuel option, the close rate on each option, and the mix of jobs sold over the following season.

Mistakes to avoid

  • Copying a heat-pump specialist's website when your reputation is furnaces.
  • Promising energy savings figures you can't back up for a specific house.
  • Building an offer around a program that has closed or not yet launched.
  • Ignoring the repair-or-replace conversation, where positioning is won or lost in the home.

Our long-form guide on planning a furnace company's next five years covers this thinking in depth. Read our results to see the HVAC work behind the method.

Frequently asked questions

Should a furnace company rebrand as a heat-pump company?

Rarely all at once. Most furnace-led companies do better adding a credible dual-fuel and heat-pump offer while keeping the furnace reputation that brings in calls. A full rebrand makes sense only where gas heating is already a small share of homes.

What is dual-fuel, in business terms?

A heat pump paired with a gas or other non-electric furnace that takes over in the coldest weather. For a furnace company it is a way to sell heat-pump work without abandoning gas expertise, and in some places it is specifically supported by programs.

Can you tell us which system is right for a particular house?

No. System selection and sizing are technical decisions for your licensed staff. We decide how the business presents the options and which ones to lead with in your market.

How often should positioning be revisited?

At least once a year, and whenever a major program opens or closes. As of October 2026, the federal heat pump rebate announced on 2026-10-08 had no published launch date, which is exactly the kind of change to watch.

Sources

  1. Statistics Canada Table 38-10-0286-01: Primary heating systems and type of energy (2026-10-23)
  2. Government of Canada: National Heat Pump Rebate Program announcement (2026-10-08) (2026-10-23)
  3. Government of Yukon: Dependable Grid Program rebates (2026-04-15) (2026-10-23)