Will gas furnaces disappear in Canada?

We don't make predictions like that. What the data shows is that gas remains the main heating energy for most homes in several provinces and a small share in others, and that public money now favours heat pumps. Planning should follow your market, not a national headline.

When should a furnace company start selling heat pumps?

Before competitors define the offer in your area. In gas-heavy provinces, a dual-fuel option is a sensible first step; in electric provinces, heat pumps are already the main market.

Does the federal heat pump rebate apply to dual-fuel systems?

The October 2026 announcement describes rebates for eligible electric cold-climate air-source heat pumps. Detailed rules, including how combined systems are treated, should be confirmed with the program once it publishes them.

What should we change first?

Usually the proposal: adding a fairly presented dual-fuel or heat-pump option to every replacement quote. It costs little, teaches you what customers choose, and protects you from losing comparisons.

Planning a Furnace Company's Next Five Years in Canada

Every furnace company in Canada is being asked the same question in different accents: what happens to our business as heat pumps grow? The honest answer depends on where you work. This guide gives you a method for planning the next five years, starting from how homes in your province are actually heated, then setting out what to change in your offers, people, care plans and brand.

Figures on heating fuel come from Statistics Canada's Table 38-10-0286-01, which reports the main heating energy of households in 2023 as a share of all households. Programs were checked in October 2026; confirm them with administrators before acting.

What's changing, and what isn't

Three forces are reshaping the furnace market.

Public money favours heat pumps. Ottawa's National Heat Pump Rebate Program, unveiled on 2026-10-08, sets aside $2 billion across eight years. It aims at up to 820,000 homeowners buying eligible electric cold-climate air-source units, paying $2,000 to most and as much as $10,000 to households under the median income. The announcement didn't give a launch date. Several provinces run their own heat-pump programs, and the federal Canada Greener Homes Affordability Program delivers no-cost retrofits through provincial partners.

Oil conversion money has largely closed. The federal Oil to Heat Pump Affordability program took its last applications on 2026-07-31 in the provinces and territory it delivered federally.

Homeowners compare more options. Even where gas dominates, more homeowners now ask about heat pumps before replacing a furnace.

What isn't changing: furnaces still heat a large share of homes in several provinces, those furnaces still age and fail, and the company that services a home is still the most likely to be asked what to do next.

Four kinds of provincial market

Type 1: Gas-dominant (Alberta, Saskatchewan)

Gas was the main heating energy for roughly three-quarters of households in both provinces in 2023. Saskatchewan's gas utility still rebates high-efficiency gas furnaces. The furnace replacement market here is large and will remain the core of the business for years.

Five-year plan: protect the replacement margin, build the largest care-plan base you can, and add dual-fuel as an upgrade option so heat-pump competitors don't define it first.

Type 2: Gas-majority, mixed (Ontario, Manitoba)

Gas leads, at 58% in Ontario and 52% in Manitoba, but electricity heats a significant share, and active provincial or utility heat-pump rebates change the comparison when a furnace and air conditioner are replaced together.

Five-year plan: make dual-fuel a standard column on every replacement quote, build heat-pump install skills in at least one crew, and decide deliberately whether to pursue electrically heated homes.

Type 3: Split or shifting (British Columbia)

Gas was the main heating energy for 42% of BC households and electricity for 36%, and provincial rebates reward switching away from gas. A federally funded FortisBC stream includes dual-fuel measures.

Five-year plan: position as a whole-home heating company with gas, dual-fuel and heat-pump options on equal footing, with different emphasis on the coast and in the Interior.

Type 4: Electric or heat-pump-led (Quebec and Atlantic Canada)

In Quebec, electricity heats about 70% of homes and gas 5%. In New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and PEI, heat pumps were already the primary system for a quarter to over a third of households in 2023, and oil remains significant in Nova Scotia and PEI. Newfoundland and Labrador is mostly electric.

Five-year plan: lead with heat pumps and conversions, keep fossil-fuel expertise as a specialist and backup service, and market primarily to existing oil and propane customers.

The territories don't fit these types and aren't covered by the Statistics Canada table. Yukon's Dependable Grid Program supports dual-fuel and non-electric heating to protect the grid, which makes furnace-based dual-fuel a natural lead offer there.

The five areas of the plan

Whatever your market type, a five-year plan should cover the same five areas.

1. Offers

Add a dual-fuel or heat-pump option to your proposals where it suits the home, presented fairly beside repair and furnace options. Track which customers choose it. That data tells you how fast your own market is moving, which beats any national forecast.

2. People

Decide when to train or hire for heat-pump installation and service. In a Type 1 market, one capable crew might be enough for several years. In a Type 4 market, heat-pump work is the main job. Your licensed staff will know which certifications apply; your provincial certification body is listed on each province page.

3. Care plans

A care-plan member is your best protection against fuel switching, because they ask you first whatever system they choose. Extend the plan to cover heat pumps and backup systems, so a member who converts stays a member.

4. Brand

Decide what you want to be known for in five years. A furnace company in Alberta can keep "furnace" in its identity. A furnace company in Quebec probably shouldn't lead with it. Some companies add a separate brand for a new system type rather than diluting the main one.

5. Margins

New system types bring new costs: training, tools, callbacks while crews learn, and electrical upgrades. Cost them separately from furnace work, using a method like our margin worksheet, so a growing heat-pump line doesn't hide losses.

A simple yearly review

Once a year, before the heating season, answer five questions:

What share of our replacement quotes included more than one fuel option?
What share of customers chose each option?
Which programs opened or closed in our province this year?
How many care-plan members do we have, and what systems do they own?
Are we earning our target margin on each system type?

The answers will tell you whether to speed up, hold or slow down the shift in your offer.

Mistakes to avoid

Waiting for certainty. Programs will keep changing. Plan with what's known now and review yearly.
Copying a heat-pump specialist. If your reputation is furnaces, build on it.
Ignoring your own data. What your own customers choose tells you more than any outside forecast.
Rebranding overnight. Shift gradually, starting with the proposal.

Where to go from here

Your province page in our areas hub describes the starting picture in more detail. If you'd like a written positioning decision for your company, that's our fuel-shift positioning service. To discuss the plan with Ali, see the contact page.

Planning a furnace company's next five years as heating electrifies